The risk of blackouts, price spikes and power rationing has increased as Europe heads into the heating season with fragile fuel balances and tightening power fundamentals.
Latest figures suggest that gas storage is at 55% capacity, the lowest for this point in the year since 2021.
Worryingly, benchmark prices have risen above €60/MWh, the highest since early 2023.
July Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports were 6.3 million tonnes, the lowest since September 2024.
Not helping the situation are a number of other worries. Causing more supply chain disruptions is the re-blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has constrained Qatari LNG flows to Europe, and Asian buyers taking four million tonnes of US LNG in June and July, which diverted cargoes.
Overall, continuing Middle East and Russian tensions are constraining global LNG availability.
What’s more, nuclear power has been restricted, with drought and heat threatening French nuclear output into September 2026. French power company EDF has already reduced generation due to limited cooling water.
In the UK, a large wildfire at Dunwich Heath, Suffolk, caused localized power cuts for 116 customers across three postcodes on July 30. Authorities initially placed nearby Sizewell B on heightened alert, but EDF confirmed operations were unaffected and later dismissed reports that the plant itself was on high alert. Restoration work continued as crews moved to contain the fire.
Systemic pressures are building in the UK. The grid’s connection queue has reached 125 GW, with 73 GW attributed to 315 proposed data centres, well above the UK’s 2025 peak demand of 45 GW. Ofgem has proposed a refundable access fee for data-centre projects of 40 MW or more, between £237,500 and £712,500 per MW; industry groups warn the charges could deter investment.
Experts believe there is also a winter inventory risk, with some predicting that Europe could reach the lowest end-October gas inventories in 14 years if Middle East disruptions persist.
A perfect storm could be gathering. The convergence of low storage, higher prices, constrained LNG flows and potential French nuclear shortfalls all increases the probability of system stress across European power markets this winter.
There will likely be knock-on risks pf blackouts for the UK via interconnectors and price coupling.
